Dynasties

Sports & Tech have something in common, namely, dynasties.

Think of the Kenyucky Wildcats Men's Basketball teams of the 1990s or the Cincinnati Reds of the 1970s. Think of the IBM of the 1960s and the Microsoft of the 1990s.

All were dynasties.

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This blogger witnessed the rise of Microsoft, and simultaneously, IBM's decline. However the underpinnings of the former's ascent and the latter's descent were lost on a teenager.

GUI? Cool dude!

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Now, Microsoft descends as Linux ascends (heavily backed by IBM- irony), but this time the teenager is a man who understands the deep reasons for the sea change.

Great, but can an understanding lead to a forecast? Unfortunately not, because Linux and it's methodology are so fundamentally sound. Did Microsoft's model seem as fundamentally sound in say, 1995? Sure did. Forecasting is too complex for this simpleton.

Can another model replace the one offered by open source/Linux? Is the maturation of this industry similar to the maturation of the blogger? Microsoft a teenager, Linux a man? Ergo, a return to that delusional thinking will not occur?