summer meteorology

this week, for the first time in 2007, we have witnessed the summer weather pattern. amazingly, i had a better idea of how the weather would play out than the brainiac's with the dopplers employed by the local news channels. seriously, check it out:

derek beasley (sp?) of channel 5 started telling me on monday that rain would come tuesday PM. but, i've lived through a couple summers to this point and viewed enough of derek and his cohorts' misinformation to know better.

you see, derek is an automaton and storms make a great tease. during the summer weather pattern, he looks at his dopplers, frontal boundaries, and humidity levels and he knows rain will develop. but consider his industry- info/tainment. derek's real job is ratings and the pathetic truth is: no TV meteorologist wants to UNDERESTIMATE a storm. furthermore, if he OVERESTIMATES he can then tease, tease, tease.

"storms will move through the area later and could produce lightening, hail, and flash flooding. more on that, after these messsages."

it's the alarmist nature of TV news- plain and simple.

so, here's how to interpret what derek and his infobabes are telling you at noon, 5, 530, 6 & 11.

when derek says, RAIN! STORMS! HIGH WINDS! and HAIL! for tuesday PM but there is not a bow echo on radar, then add 24hrs before expected weather. in the example, derek is really saying wednesday PM.

this logic is trumped by the strong fronts- if you see a bow echo on radar coming from the northwest- take cover.

but, 90% of the time, that bow echo just isn't there. 90% of the time the humidity builds first and the high pressure area is not strong enough to push through as a bow echo. so, everyday derek comes on predicting RAIN! STORMS! HIGH WINDS! and HAIL! but no bow echo is present- add another 24hrs. in the example from above, we tune in again wednesday and find high humidities sans a bow echo- now weather is thursday PM. this loop can repeat for a week.

it is extremely rare for the high pressure center to develop over your particular area.

until that sweet canadian air can gather and come on through, it's a soupy heatwave and the derek beasley's from info/tainment-land should stick their dopplers where the sun don't shine- assuming they can figure out where that is.

whether or not they can find that place, they should quit misleading us in the name of selling replacement windows, SUVs, more SUVs, still more SUVs, and carpeting.

finally, the model works in reverse too. derek may say something to the effect of, "after this front moves through we will cool off for X days." usually he will give a 7day outlook showing the cooler period. always subtract 24hrs from the cooler period. so, if derek shows you 3 cool days- you're actually only going to get 2 before the return of the humidity.

apply this method to the summer of 2007 for a more accurate forecast.